Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W south-southwestward to 10N18W and to 06N22W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N31W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 04N and between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28W-29W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-35W. Similar convection is from the Equator to 06N between 35W-50W, and northwest of the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 50W and the coast of South America.

An area of numerous moderate to strong is offshore the coast of Africa from 02N to 05N between 08W-15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to 27N93W to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. No significant convection is associated with the front. Overnight ASCAT data shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds behind the front. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern is present, with the related gradient allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds. The overnight ASCAT data also indicates moderate to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern Yucatan peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. These winds extend northward to near 24N. Seas elsewhere are also 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will soon transition back to a cold front this morning and move southeastward across the basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to South Texas this morning. The front will stall again from the Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken with its remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow the front into Sat evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly impacting the western Gulf by Tue. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the next few days. East winds at fresh speeds are expected to develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night and in the far south-central Gulf near and in the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, as high pressure is centered across the east-central Atlantic, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the Straits of Florida as inferred from overnight ASCAT data. The related gradient is maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad anticyclone aloft prevail across most of the basin west of 70W, except in the far southwestern part of the sea where scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted. This is where the eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough exists. Similar activity is over some sections of Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin will continue support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades in the south-central and northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across most of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An approaching cold front is just north of the NW part of the area west of about 76W to inland the Georgia/Florida border. Satellite imagery shows increasing showers and thunderstorms moving east-southeastward out ahead of it from 27N to 30N between 72W and 80W, and also along and just north of 31N between 66W and 72W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front between 66W and 77W. A weak trough extends from 29N60W to low pressure of 1014 mb near 25N60W and continues to 19N61W. A few showers are near these features. These features will have little impact on marine conditions as they gradually weaken further this morning. Another trough extends from near 29N49W to 19N48W. Isolated showers are east of this trough from 22N to 30N between 44W and 48W.

Elsewhere, rather weak high pressure is the main feature that is driving the general wind flow pattern across the discussion domain. The high pressure is anchored by a 1026 mb high north of the area at 34N32W. Overnight ASCAT data depicts a wide swath of fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 30N and between 77W and 80W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 27N and between 66W and 77W along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 30N. To the south, gentle to moderate easterly winds remain north of the Greater Antilles to near 22N. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover a portion of the eastern waters. These trades are found north of 15N east of 30W, south of 19N between 30W and 46W, and south of 14N between 46W and 55W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft as detected by latest altimeter satellite data passes over that part of the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak high pressure over the area will continue to retreat eastward as a cold front moves off the southeastern United States this morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to South Florida by early this afternoon, then from just southeast of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun. Fresh to strong winds will be ahead of the front through Sat evening, with moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Seas to around 8 ft are expected with the fresh to strong winds. The front is expected to weaken and slow down as it reaches from 31N59W to the southeastern Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W to 23N65W early Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Another front may move over the waters east of northeast Florida around mid-week. Ahead of this possible next front, fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected over the northwest part of the area starting late Mon.

Aguirre